(PatriotWise.com)- Recent polling out of Pennsylvania has Democrat Senate candidate John Fetterman consistently leading his Republican challenger, Dr. Mehmet Oz.
But if the last several election cycles have taught us anything, it’s that Senate polling is notoriously unreliable, especially this early on in the election cycle.
You may recall that in 2020, polling out of South Carolina all showed Senator Lindsey Graham lagging behind his Democrat challenger Jaime Harrison. Ultimately, Graham defeated Harrison by over ten points.
In Iowa, polling had Democrat Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield trouncing Republican Senator Joni Ernst in the 2020 election. Ernst won by over six points.
Likewise, in North Carolina and Maine. Polling had incumbent Republican Senator Tom Tillis losing to Democrat Cal Cunningham. It was a squeaker, but Tillis won in the end. Polling had Democrat candidate Sara Gideon leading incumbent Republican Susan Collins in Maine. Collins defeated Gideon by nearly ten points.
So polling in Senate races should probably be taken with a grain of salt, especially this early on.
That said, Fetterman has consistently polled ahead of Dr. Oz, despite not spending a single day on the campaign trail. Dr. Oz has been trailing Fetterman by as much as double-digits in some polls.
The question is, will that polling reflect what happens on election day?
The other question is how much will President Biden’s abysmal polling affect Democrat candidates in November?
The most recent Civiqs poll found that President Biden holds a measly 32 percent approval in Pennsylvania. That isn’t particularly good news for John Fetterman. It’s hard to convince independent voters to choose a Democrat when the Democrat president is wildly unpopular.
If the economy stagnates or grows worse in the intervening months, Dr. Oz is likely to gain a significant advantage that may be reflected in polling.
However, given the poor track record polling outfits have in Senate races, the polling alone may not capture the sentiment on the ground.