A recent poll shows that while Hispanic voters still prefer Democrats over Republicans in the generic congressional vote, the margin between them is less than it has been in the last ten years.
A survey of 1,000 Hispanic registered voters conducted by NBC News/Telemundo last month found Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional vote by 21 points, 54 percent to 33 percent.
However, that is a drop in Democrat support compared to previous election years, which has been declining in every election cycle over the last decade.
Since 2012, Hispanic support for Democrats has declined by 50 percent.
In October 2020, Hispanics preferred Democrats over Republicans by a 26-point margin.
During the 2018 Democrat Blue Wave, Hispanics favored Democrats by a 34-point margin just weeks before the election.
In the fall of 2016, Democrats were favored by 38 points among Hispanic voters.
And in 2012, Hispanics preferred Democrats over Republicans by a staggering 42 percent, double what it is this year.
While California Hispanics continue to favor Democrats by a 30-point margin over Republicans, the same can’t be said among Hispanics in Florida.
In Florida, Democrats only enjoy a 7-point lead over Republicans among Hispanic voters.
The NBC News/Telemundo survey was conducted by Democrat pollster Hart Research Associates along with Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies.
According to Aileen Cardona-Arroyo from Hart Research, in 2022, Republicans enjoy the highest share of Hispanic support that Hart has ever measured.
Public Opinion Strategies pollster Bill McInturff said a 20-point margin between Democrats and Republicans “is a lot better” for the GOP than being separated by a 40-point margin.
In a recent interview, Florida Republican Congresswoman Elvira Salazar said the shift from Democrat to Republican shows that Hispanic voters are “waking up.”
The NBC News/Telemundo survey also showed President Biden’s approval above water among Hispanics with 51 percent approving and only 45 percent disapproving.
