Top Analyst Says Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Now More Likely

( Over the weekend, former DOD official Elbridge Colby appeared on The Next Revolution with Steve Hilton to discuss the conflict between China and Taiwan. And in Colby’s view, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is more likely, and the United States needs to start preparing itself for possible a military response.

Colby, the co-founder of the Marathon Initiative, previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development during the Trump administration. During his time at the DoD, Colby served as the lead official in the development and rollout of the Pentagon’s 2018 National Defense Strategy which shifted the Department of Defense’s focus to the threats posed by the Communist Chinese regime.

Colby told Hilton that if China wants to solve the Taiwan issue, the most likely way they will do so is to invade. China isn’t going to “work to subordinate Taiwan,” Colby explains. Instead, China will “go for a fait accompli” – namely move in and take over the country. An invasion, Colby tells Hilton, would present the United States with “too difficult of a reality to reverse.”

Hilton asks Colby why it should matter to the United States if China invades Taiwan.

Colby gives two reasons. He explains that Taiwan’s fate is linked to the fate of the United States’ entire coalition in Asia. He argues that our lives would “fundamentally change” if China dominates the world. And the way China will dominate the world is to first dominate the entire region which, Colby explains, is 50 percent of the world’s GDP. And the way it will dominate the region is by breaking apart any alliances of countries that stand in its way — alliances led by the US and including such countries as Taiwan, Japan, India, Vietnam, Australia and others.

More importantly, Taiwan would provide China with a strategic advantage in the region. Quoting Douglas MacArthur, Colby explains that Taiwan is “the unsinkable aircraft carrier.” If China invades Taiwan, it provides them with a strategic military base in the central Pacific.

But the other reason that the US should care if Taiwan invades is more significant especially in light of the failure of Afghanistan. Colby tells Hilton that the United States’ credibility in the region is tied to Taiwan. If Japan, for example, sees the US back down on Taiwan, what message does that send to them regarding the US commitment to its allies in the region?

Watch the interview: